Yes, some of those authors believed the Thomas et al study was an overestimate, and others believed the risk could be even greater. Thomas et al replied in Nature addressing criticisms and concluding, "Although further investigation is needed into each of these areas, it is unlikely to result in substantially reduced estimates of extinction. Anthropogenic climate change seems set to generate very large numbers of species-level extinctions."
(See:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 ... 02719.html)
Research published in the 4 January 2012 edition of Proceedings of the Royal Society B by Urban et al found that diversity decreased when differences in how quickly species relocate and competition among species were taken into account in the climate model used. As a result they observed the rate of extinctions may be higher than previously projected. (
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/)
If anyone wants to read more about birds and climate change the most recent study was published in June 2013 in PLoS One by the IUCN, BirdLife International and others ("Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals:
http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi ... ne.0065427). This found that 24-50% of all bird species are threatened by climate change.
It found that, of those species currently considered to be safe by the IUCN, 17-41% are highly vulnerable to climate change, including "most Arctic birds", some of which migrate to New Zealand.
And of those bird species that are both highly climate change vulnerable and threatened, the regions which contain the highest numbers include, Sundaland [Indonesia], the Indian subcontinent, south-eastern South America, southern oceans from 30–60oS, the northern Andes, much of central and eastern Asia, Africa excluding the Sahara and Congo basin, and parts of North America.
Obviously, "southern oceans from 30–60oS" includes seas around New Zealand from the Kermadec Islands to seas south of Campbell Island and [Australian] Macquarie Island towards Antarctica.
See also the research published by a team at the University of Strasbourg which found that warming of the sea surface by as little as several tenths of one degree poses a serious threat to king penguins. The study tracked more than 450 king penguins over nine years and found that warm events negatively affected breeding success and adult survival. The derived population dynamic model suggested a 9% decline in adult survival for 0.26°C of warming. The authors suggested that king penguin populations were "at heavy risk" of extinction" based on projections of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC predicted an average temperature increase of approximately 0.2°C per decade for the next two decades.
"King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming":
http://www.pnas.org/content/105/7/2493.long
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